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By Justice Iseghohi
It is no longer news that the APC stakeholders who have resolved to replace Governor Godwin Obaseki as the party's candidate for the 2020 Edo State Governorship Election have decided that the easiest way to do this would be to present a consensus candidate among the formidable aspirants in their good books. That is to say that they have agreed on an internal selection process to choose one of the popular aspirants who have in the meantime agreed to submit themselves to the process, to contest against the incumbent governor, who may insist on participating in the party's primary in June despite the odds against him. The notable aspirants from among whom the consensus candidate is expected to emerge are namely: General Charles Airhiavbere (rtd), Engr. Chris Ogiemwonyi, Dr. Pius Odubu and Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu.
The supporters of these candidates seem to have keyed into this idea even as they root for their respective principals. There is no doubt that a consensus candidate from among any of these great men would make the defeat of Godwin Obaseki at the party's primary a foregone conclusion. However, the same thing cannot be said of the outcome of the general election slated for September if (1) Godwin Obaseki gets the ticket of the PDP to contest as rumoured, (2) if Obaseki deploys resources to work for the PDP candidate in the event that he does not contest (3) if any of the other aspirants breaks the accord reached prior to the consensus selection.
Quiet a number of the members of the APC opposed to Godwin Obaseki and who are in support of the consensus arrangement, have expressed the sentiment that all the aspirants for the consensus selection are qualified to be governor and that anyone of them chosen could win the general election. What they may not have cared to evaluate are the circumstantial realities that could possibly undermine their optimism.
While I agree with the proposition that all the APC governorship aspirants are qualified to be governor of Edo State, I do not agree that just anyone of them can win the general election. Even with the agreement in principle that demands those that are stepped down to work for the consensus candidate at the general election in place, I have my reservation.
The reality is that the agreement for all the unsuccessful aspirants to work for the chosen one may be threatened if the process of selection is characterized by impunity, whereby it is not free, fair and credible. It could also run into problem if evident superiority or merit is sacrificed on the altar of mundane sentimentality.
Apparently, all the aspirants have a record of being good men. They are also politically experienced and understand the value of team work and compromise in political administration, of which the incumbent governor, Godwin Obaseki has proven to be very deficient. Nevertheless, they all do not possess the same level of gravitas or capacity to swing the general election the way of the ruling party. And this is very important because in the event that Obaseki is denied the APC ticket, the party will have to grapple with a hurt and desperate incumbent who definitely would want to impact the election, directly or indirectly, like a wounded lion fighting for its life and its pride.
Therefore, it is a descent into fallacy to assume that whoever is fielded among these aspirants angling to upstage Obaseki as the governorship candidate of the APC is an automatic winner. It is also delusional. As indicated earlier, all the aspirants certainly do not have equal capacity to mobilize the party and the general electorate to a win if the choice of candidate becomes the immutable factor in the contest, as it likely going to be. Granted that the APC is the ruling party at the national level, it is not sufficient to assume that whoever they give their ticket to contest the Edo 2020 governorship election will win.
The assumption that whoever the APC presents can win the 2020 Edo Governorship Election could only be a product of the belief that the party has a plan to win outside of conducting the election and collating results the standard way. In plain term, it means the party has a plan of rig as an alternative. Should this be what members of the APC should base their expectation? Definitely not!
While we cannot dismiss the allegation that such may have happened in some governorship elections around the country, as popularly argued, particularly with regard to the stand-alone elections, it is illogical and foolhardy to assume that it would always be the case. For every narrative, there is always the elements of time, circumstance and personae, which determine its resolution.
While comparing Edo State 2020 Governorship Election to such controversial elections, one must bear in mind that the times are different, the states are different, the electorates are different and the circumstances leading to the governorship primaries are definitely different. Granted that Obaseki cannot get the APC ticket against a consensus candidate, there dislocations that have since occurred that are of such proportions that make it imperative for the APC to choose the most formidable of the aspirants as their consensus candidate.
Meanwhile, it is instructive to note that in the 2019 governorship elections, the APC and the PDP lost some states where they had the advantage of incumbency. Examples are Bauchi, Gombe, and Oyo States. These states where not won and lost in the courts but at the polling stations. The people voted and the votes counted. One thing common to all the states lost during the 2019 governorship election despite the incumbency of party, is their choice of candidates. Unpopular candidates were fielded on the sentiments that their sponsors or party leaders had the muscle to force them on the people in spite of the prevailing sentiments among the electorates and their obvious lack of personal capacity and popularity with the people.
Personal capacity and popularity with the people are two essential ingredients needed to push through the ambition of a candidate in a free and fair election. In context, capacity is the potential or ability of the candidate to mobilize human and financial resources to meet the exigencies of the election process. It is true that in an ideal circumstance, it is the duty of the party to mobilize these resources behind its candidate. Where the party fails to provide the ideal human and material resources, the candidate must be able to deploy his structures and goodwill to save the day.
It should be further explained that possessing resources goes beyond having money to pay for services and logistics. It is rather the possession of an articulate campaign vision and mechanism which synchronize with the provisions and intentions of the party. One common term known to politicians for qualifying the capacity and formidability of an aspirant or candidate, is structure. Politicians understand when it is said that an aspirant has structure. Structure is not necessarily gotten by having excessive money. It is a derivative of practical experience, vision, goodwill and of course, money.
In the 2020 Governorship Election, that the governorship candidate of the APC that replaces Obaseki on the ballot must be immensely popular with the majority of the party members as well as the general electorate is a sine qua non. In determining the popularity of the respective aspirants, their political history, antecedents, cognate electoral experience and present physical rating are indispensable factors that must be put into consideration. On the basis of these and the aforementioned critical parameters, the question is who amongst the four notable men, namely: General Charles Airhiavbere, Engr. Chris Ogiemwonyi, Dr. Pius Odubu and Pastor Osagie Ize-Iyamu fits the bill and is most qualified?
That is the question that the leaders saddled with the responsibility of selecting a consensus candidate must answer dispassionately. They should however know that even though not privileged to be involved in the selection process, the majority of the party members know whom the cap fits. The big question then is, will the few selectors care to know who the majority would vote for if they already do not know?
JUSTICE ISEGHOHI is an APC member and a political analyst
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